Public Power Corporation S.A: Share Price vs. Fair Value: Overvalued 300%. Top 25 shareholders

by on 26 April 2020

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Public Power.

Data PointSourceValue
Valuation ModelDividend Discount Model
Dividend Per ShareCompany Filings (31/12/2019) in EUR€ 0.09
Payout RatioCompany Filings (31/12/2019)-0.04%
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity)See below12.9%
Perpetual Growth Rate10-Year GR Government Bond Rate1.9%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Data PointCalculation/ SourceResult
Risk-Free Rate10-Year GR Govt Bond Rate1.9%
Equity Risk PremiumS&P Global13.7%
Electric Utilities Unlevered BetaSimply Wall St/ S&P Global0.29
Re-levered Beta= 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 – tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.293) * (1 + (1 – 29.0%) (645.69%))]
0.438
Levered BetaLevered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.92% + (0.800 * 13.68%)
12.86%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ATSE:PPC using Dividend Discount Model Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value forPublic Poweris arrived at by discounting future dividends to their present value. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate (e.g. Banks/ Insurance firms).

If the firm does not pay the majority of its earnings out as a dividend this method will often arrive at a value significantly lower than the share price.

CalculationResultValue per share= Expected dividends per share / (Discount Rate – Perpetual growth rate)
€0.090 / (12.86% – 1.92%)€0.82

CalculationResultValue per share (EUR)From above.€0.67Current discountDiscount to share price of €2.68
= -1 x (€2.68 – €0.67) / €0.67-300.0%

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 72.75% of the company

OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
34.12%Hellenic Corporation of Assets & Participations S.A.79,165,360€212.2m0%no data
17%Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund S.A.39,440,000€105.7m0%10.58%
13.8%Silchester International Investors LLP32,016,000€85.8m0%0.56%
1.68%The Vanguard Group, Inc.3,904,974€10.5m0.78%no data
0.89%Alpha Asset Management A.E.D.A.K.2,070,277€5.5m-9.86%1.51%
0.66%BlackRock, Inc.1,524,287€4.1m3.39%no data
0.64%Generali Investments Europe S.p.A. SGR1,476,329€4.0m0%0.1%
0.59%Pension Mutual Fund Management Company S.A.1,375,000€3.7m34.1%1.19%
0.53%Piraeus Asset Management MFMC1,235,467€3.3m28.42%1.85%
0.53%NBG Asset Management Mutual Fund Management Company1,226,500€3.3m-5.03%1.35%
0.53%Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., Ltd1,218,802€3.3m-28.87%0.01%
0.39%3K Investment Partners MFMC SA898,414€2.4m-0.4%3.96%
0.27%Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America – College Retirement Equities Fund623,958€1.7m-3.99%no data
0.26%Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P.613,983€1.6m-1.51%no data
0.25%Pacific Investment Management Company LLC578,635€1.6m17.33%0.01%
0.12%Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC276,300€740.5k-8.86%no data
0.11%Alico Mutual Fund Management Company260,000€696.8k333.33%1.55%
0.078%State Street Global Advisors, Inc.180,074€482.6k0.08%no data
0.066%Cambria Investment Management, L.P.152,435€408.5k-6.82%0.09%
0.065%AcomeA Sgr150,000€402.0k0%0.2%
0.06%Marfin Mutual Fund Management Company140,000€375.2k7.69%4.51%
0.039%Acadian Asset Management LLC91,269€244.6k0%no data
0.024%Athos Asset Management SA56,500€151.4k232.35%7.05%
0.024%Pioneer Global Asset Management S.p.A.55,025€147.5k0%no data
0.022%FMR LLC50,017€134.0k0%no data